The day-1 baseline is a page of numbers written down before anything in the company changes. It sounds like paperwork, but it is the single most important step of any program. Without it, every result can be argued away; with it, the day-90 report is a plain comparison anyone in the company can check.
Why heating companies need a baseline more than most
Heating demand swings with the weather. A cold November makes everyone look good, and a mild one makes everyone look bad. If a consultant compares raw totals, the result mostly measures the thermometer.
The fix is to measure ratios and costs rather than totals: what share of calls was answered, what share of answered calls was booked, what each booked job cost in marketing. Those numbers move because of what the company does, not because of the forecast.
The numbers we record on day 1
Most baselines use eight numbers. Some companies need fewer.
| Number | Where it usually comes from |
|---|---|
| Inbound calls per week | Phone system or call tracking |
| Answer rate | Phone system: answered ÷ received |
| Booking rate | Dispatch board: visits booked ÷ calls answered |
| Cost per booked job | Marketing spend ÷ booked visits from marketing |
| Average ticket by job type | Dispatch or invoicing export: service, maintenance, replacement |
| Replacement quote close rate | Quotes won ÷ quotes issued |
| Active maintenance members | CRM or membership list |
| Share of revenue in the shoulder months | Invoicing, by month |
The heating company scorecard guide explains each one in detail, including how to pull it yourself if you never hire anyone.
What is included
- read access set up for the accounts and exports listed above
- the written baseline, with a reliability note beside every number
- the fixed list of two to four measures that will decide whether the program worked
- a one-page scorecard format reused at day 30, 60 and 90, and every month on the retainer
- notes on gaps in tracking, such as calls from the website that are not counted
Measurement here is business measurement. We do not measure system performance, efficiency or safety on any equipment; that is not consulting work and belongs to licensed technicians.
Timeline
The baseline is built in the first week of the 90-day heating program. Access is usually the slowest part: logins scattered across a former agency, an office manager's personal email or a phone provider's portal. If access takes longer, the clock waits; nothing gets fixed before the baseline is written.
A worked example
A three-truck furnace and boiler company in its first program records, on day 1:
- 310 calls per month in the reference period, 74% answered
- 47% of answered calls booked
- $118 cost per booked job from paid search
- replacement close rate 29%
By day 90 the same measures read 88% answered, 52% booked, $96 per booked job and 33% close. Total calls fell to 280 because the weather was milder, but booked visits per 100 calls rose from about 35 to about 46. Without the baseline, the owner would have seen "fewer calls" and concluded nothing worked. The numbers here are illustrative; the method is what we use.
When the baseline itself is the finding
Sometimes the most useful thing the baseline shows is that a number cannot be found. If nobody can say how many calls arrived last January, the company is flying blind through its most valuable month. In that case, the first fix on the day-30 list is simply to start counting, and the program measures from the day counting begins.
Mistakes to avoid
- Counting leads instead of booked jobs. A form fill is not revenue.
- Letting the ads platform grade itself. Platform "conversions" often include clicks on a phone number, not completed calls.
- Choosing measures after seeing results. The measures are fixed on day 1.
- Tracking twenty numbers. Two to four decide the program; the rest are context.
- Losing access when a vendor leaves. Keep every account in the company's name.
See how a measured approach shows up in our results, and what it costs on the pricing page.
Frequently asked questions
What if our records are a mess?
That is normal and fine. We record the most reliable figure available with a note on how reliable it is, and fixing the record-keeping often becomes one of the day-30 fixes.
Which software do we need?
None in particular. The baseline is built from what you already have: your phone system or call tracking, your dispatch or CRM export, Google Business Profile insights, ad account data and website analytics.
How do you adjust for weather?
We compare ratios such as booked visits per 100 calls rather than raw totals, and where possible compare the same weeks of last season. A cold month raises call volume, but it does not by itself change the share of calls you book.
Who owns the reports and the data?
You do. The accounts stay in your company's name, and the baseline and every report are yours to keep whether or not you continue with us.